Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 0.003445 0.003768 0.004112 0.004508 0.004951 0.005435 0.006002
2025-12-14 0.002865 0.003311 0.003820 0.004448 0.005208 0.006104 0.007249
2025-12-21 0.002504 0.002998 0.003589 0.004354 0.005330 0.006545 0.008198
2025-12-28 0.002263 0.002787 0.003436 0.004309 0.005472 0.006989 0.009164
2026-01-04 0.002105 0.002656 0.003360 0.004341 0.005695 0.007541 0.010317
2026-01-11 0.001943 0.002502 0.003235 0.004284 0.005783 0.007902 0.011227
2026-01-18 0.001813 0.002378 0.003134 0.004246 0.005884 0.008280 0.012194
2026-01-25 0.001696 0.002260 0.003031 0.004193 0.005950 0.008603 0.013103
2026-02-01 0.001613 0.002183 0.002978 0.004203 0.006108 0.009074 0.014300
2026-02-08 0.001521 0.002087 0.002889 0.004151 0.006161 0.009379 0.015247
2026-02-15 0.001432 0.001988 0.002790 0.004074 0.006164 0.009598 0.016064
2026-02-22 0.001377 0.001936 0.002756 0.004094 0.006323 0.010090 0.017435
2026-03-01 0.001345 0.001919 0.002776 0.004208 0.006659 0.010942 0.019654
2026-03-08 0.001273 0.001838 0.002695 0.004152 0.006704 0.011285 0.020940
2026-03-15 0.001202 0.001753 0.002601 0.004066 0.006685 0.011506 0.022004
2026-03-22 0.001146 0.001689 0.002536 0.004025 0.006742 0.011873 0.023433
2026-03-29 0.001109 0.001653 0.002513 0.004053 0.006928 0.012510 0.025567
2026-04-05 0.001059 0.001593 0.002448 0.004002 0.006956 0.012832 0.027027
2026-04-12 0.001016 0.001542 0.002395 0.003967 0.007013 0.013219 0.028709
2026-04-19 0.000973 0.001489 0.002336 0.003917 0.007036 0.013533 0.030263
2026-04-26 0.000944 0.001457 0.002310 0.003927 0.007178 0.014122 0.032639
2026-05-03 0.000907 0.001411 0.002256 0.003879 0.007198 0.014438 0.034341
2026-05-10 0.000868 0.001360 0.002192 0.003808 0.007162 0.014623 0.035716